Coiled Spring Capital Mid-week post

We apologize for not being able to write a report post the FOMC. We are unfortunately being impacted again by the Texas freeze, and we lost power on Tuesday night. We appreciate your patience. 

Last weekend we specifically mentioned a possible overthrow to test our upper resistance limits around SPX 4200. Today we topped @ 4195.  Were we selling some of our single stock longs before this last rip? Sure, because the set up into the FOMC was not great and we had made 20-30% on the bulk of them. We thought Powell would be hawkish, and he was, but the market gripped on to his "disinflation" mention. Why? We have no idea; we all know inflation is coming down. Regardless, the market was poised to rip as long as he didn't offer new information. We talk about what's contemplated in the market, and keeping the status quo and also confirming the hiking cycle is close to ending (for now), was enough to send all the shorts panicking. This was not new news. We have shown repeatedly what Fed Fund Futures were discounting, and rate hikes have been forecasted to stop around May, with cuts starting in July. 

We continue to be amazed how the bearish community continually ignores all the warning signs. We have posted repeatedly since late Dec to pay attention to the plethora of signals indicating that the market was changing. We took quite a bit of shrapnel for posting our views. Most of those rude rebuttals have been deleted, and for good reason, we couldn't have been more right about what was developing under the surface. We are just pleased that our readers were given the tools to make gobs of money in the last rally. It's been our most profitable one yet over the last year, and we appreciate our readers sending us how well they have done during this last swing higher. We couldn't be more pleased. 

A few weeks ago, we wrote that bears capitulating would be a warning sign to start exiting longs. This is now happening in droves. But is there more left in the tank for the bullish trade?

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