Coiled Spring Capital Mid-week update Aug 30, 2022

The SPX is only down 350 points in a span of 2 weeks when all the newly minted bulls came out of the woodwork to tell us the next bull market was at hand....and yes, we got bearish near the top and added to that bearish position on a test of the 200 day. Both our downside targets have now been achieved. This after we got bullish in Mid Jun near the lows. It's all time stamped in our reports...So we nailed both swings with pretty good precision and we are proud of that fact; haters be damned!

We have been steadfastly bearish on the macro, which is slated to take a turn for the worse in the 2H. Numbers are going to get cut drastically, unemployment will undoubtedly rise, and pain will be felt across the globe. This is not a good scenario for the stock market. QT is about to double in Sept and entering the worst seasonality stretch for the market. Since when does "Fighting the Fed" work?

The stock market is all about liquidity and earnings, and both are about to get a smack down. 

Here is your daily dose of reality. The SPX monthly chart is looking rather ominous. 

Does that mean we go down in straight line? No, and how we add value is telling our subscribers when it's time to play for countertrend rallies.

Are we approaching one of those times?

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