Coiled Spring Capital Mid-week update (Single Stock considerations)

We are back a bit earlier than usual this week since we will be traveling the next few days and will not have an opportunity to do a proper mid-week report. Currently there are only 2 days' worth of data so analyzing market action is a bit premature. We also have some heavy Macro data coming our way (PCE, GDP, Durable Goods) which could change the picture materially.

Separately, the next few weeks are the heaviest earnings weeks of the season, and we expect more fireworks. $MSFT was the first major tech company to report after the close, and despite having a better initial reaction, the forward guidance revealed on the conference call was not awe inspiring.

The bigger question, isn't that they took down their guide, but how will the stock react? Yes, it is down in AH but the close is always more important. We and everyone else knows '23 guidance is coming down across the board for most companies - this should not be a surprise. So will the market look past these numbers cuts to a potential 2H inflection or are annual numbers still at risk? Recall what we said in our first report of the year (3 biggest questions for the stock market).

Review the report here:

Coiled Spring Capital Macro Report Jan 2nd, 2023 | Coiled Spring Capital Macro Report (beehiiv.com)

For reference here is the question we posed in that report:

The next few days trading will give clues for the answer to this question.

Separately, we did want to provide a few idea updates and some more content around what we are seeing should the market take a bit of a breather.

Performance of recent posted ideas on public twitter and in our published reports from inception to sale (open position performance are based on todays close):

12/20 $AMZN +16%; 12/20 SPX +6%; 12/23 $DIS +25%; 12/27 $IWM +9%; 12/29 $META +24%; 12/23 $TSLA +21%; 1/3 $PYPL +9%; 1/3 $GM +15%; 1/3 $DKS +6%; 1/3 $DOCU +5%; 1/11 $NIO +5%; 1/11 $ENPH +11%. 1/14 $NVDA +15%; 1/16 $JD +3.5%; 1/16 $MU +9%; 1/16 $AMD +7%; 1/16 $NET +17%; 1/21 $GOOGL +2%; 1/21 $AAPL +3%; 1/21 $MSFT 0%; 1/21 $EXPE +4%

We think our point is made. If you get the direction of the stock market right, you don't have to be a genius stock picker to make a lot of money. We call market inflections as good as anyone, and our research is proprietary and reasonably priced. Join below.

We are offering a few more idea considerations below for premium subscribers.

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