AI stocks. Metals. Crypto.

Surprise, surprise; gold crashed 16%. Silver plunged 34%. Bitcoin dropped to 1 year lows.

All supposedly "uncorrelated" assets moving in lockstep largely because of overleveraged margin.

JPM strategists warn that the same leverage is still a risk.

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Introduction

There’s an old saying: you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.

Over the past several weeks, we laid out a clear, counter-consensus roadmap across multiple instruments and sectors. The setups were there, the catalysts were identified, and the trades were outlined. The question is simple: Did You Drink?

We’re referring to several high-conviction calls made over the last three weeks.

In our February 16th report, we laid out the framework for a potential rotation out of semiconductors and into software. At the time, the consensus narrative was extreme—software was being priced for Armageddon while capital continued to crowd into semis.

We took the opposite side.

Our view was that NVDA’s earnings report could serve as the catalyst that finally triggered the rotation.

That thesis has now played out, producing more than 1,200 basis points of outperformance in just one week.

In our February 25th report, we also outlined the potential for rotation away from cyclical leaders and into lagging sectors — setting the stage for mean reversion.

We wrote:

While NVDA’s report ultimately disappointed investors, the rotation has materialized anyway.

Several of 2026’s leadership groups — including Materials and Consumer Staples — have slid toward the bottom of the sector leaderboard since the NVDA report. Energy, of course, remains the notable exception, still being buoyed by the escalation in Iran.

In our March 1st report, we also highlighted the possibility that energy could be nearing a near-term peak as geopolitical fears surrounding Iran intensified.

We wrote:

That’s precisely what unfolded.

Energy initially rallied on the Iran headlines, but the move has since stalled as the market begins to digest the news. If history is any guide, geopolitical spikes in oil often prove to be classic “sell-the-news” events.

We also identified a tradeable bottom in Bitcoin.

In our February 22nd report, we wrote:

Then, just days later in our February 25th report, we noted:

Since that DeMark Sequential 13 buy printed on February 24th, Bitcoin is now up roughly 18%, validating the signal and reinforcing the idea that a tradeable low was cemented.

So we’ll ask again: Did You Drink?

Now let’s turn to the charts.