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Introduction

Our call to buy the recent weakness in equities proved prescient—again.

We’ll say it plainly: identifying inflection points is where we really add value. When markets dislocate, opportunity is created—but only for those who can recognize extremes in real time. That is what we have consistently demonstrated.

We titled our 3/22 report Buy the Panic for a reason. The setup was clear, and the conclusion left little ambiguity. We wrote:

That “cathartic push lower” came the following Monday—perhaps not as extreme as we anticipated, but sufficient to complete the setup. More importantly, it provided a clear window for readers to begin adding exposure.

What followed speaks for itself.

The S&P 500 is up over +8% in just two weeks.

That’s meaningful alpha—if you know where to look, and more importantly, when to act.

In our 4/5 report, we outlined the conditions under which oil was likely to peak—specifically, when our signals reached alignment. That alignment occurred, the DeMark sell signal triggered, and oil topped with precision.

Since then, crude has declined by as much as ~22% from the highs.

We’ll ask the obvious question: which technical strategist on the Street is consistently identifying turning points with that level of precision—and translating it into actionable alpha over such a short window?

We’re comfortable with the answer.

In our 4/5 report, we outlined the conditions under which oil was likely to peak—specifically, when our signals reached alignment. That alignment occurred, the DeMark sell signal triggered, and oil topped with precision.

Since then, crude has declined by as much as ~22% from the highs.

We’ll ask the obvious question: which technical strategist on the Street is consistently identifying turning points with that level of precision—and translating it into actionable alpha over such a short window?

We’ll wait….

And where did we stall? Friday’s high printed 6845. Bullseye.

So the obvious question: was the past two-week bounce in equities nothing more than a dead cat bounce?

The honest answer—we don’t know. But we have a roadmap.

Earnings season kicks off this week, led by the large-cap banks. Their commentary will be critical, particularly as it relates to the growing unease around private credit.

This comes on the heels of Friday’s mixed CPI report—headline inflation printing at its highest level in four years, while the core reading remained relatively muted.

Against that backdrop, it’s difficult to envision particularly optimistic forward guidance, especially with management teams now having ample cover to strike a more conservative tone.

How equities choose to interpret that, however, is an entirely different story.

Wall Street is not expecting a banner earnings season. Consensus estimates point to roughly ~12% year-over-year growth for the S&P 500 in Q1—the weakest pace since Q2 2025, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Strip out Technology—arguably the most insulated from the oil shock—and that figure drops to closer to ~3%, marking the softest growth in two years.

Higher oil prices are a clear headwind across much of the market. Industrials, with their fuel-intensive operations and transportation exposure, are particularly vulnerable. Retailers face a similar challenge, as rising costs collide with growing concerns around consumer resilience.

Meanwhile, the market has already begun to reflect this shift.

Since the start of Q2, Technology has reasserted leadership, while Energy has lagged meaningfully. As a reminder, we flagged the risk/reward in energy two weeks ago and recommended trimming exposure.

Since then—it’s been raining alpha.

Don’t say you weren’t warned. The DeMark Combo 13 sell on XLE nailed the recent peak.

Semiconductors (SMH) have firmly regained control of the tape and remain the market’s leadership group, pushing to fresh all-time highs last week.

It’s difficult to press a bearish stance on equities when the primary engine of the bull market is behaving like this.

As long as semis continue to lead—supported by strong price momentum, persistent demand, and capital flows—the broader market will have a hard time breaking down in a meaningful way.

Leadership matters. And right now, it’s constructive.

Outside of semiconductors, the broader technology complex is trading at its most attractive valuations since 2022.

In other words, leadership remains strong where it matters most—but beneath the surface, there is still valuation support across the rest of the sector.

And much to the dismay of bears, Technology tagged the 38.2% fib and ripped higher—that’s bullish.

And guess who decided to wake up? The most important stocks in the market. That move aligned with a DeMark weekly 9 buy on the Mag 7 index—signals matter.

The setup for a durable low is taking shape—but the geopolitical backdrop may have other plans.

Our advice remains the same: strip out the noise and trust the price action.

With that, let’s turn to the charts.