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Introduction

We tell our readers repeatedly: follow price, Ignore the Noise. There is a reason for that. Headlines are fleeting. Narratives change by the hour. Price is the only truth that matters. Had you anchored too heavily to the endless doom loop surrounding the Iran conflict, collapsing growth fears, and surging oil prices, you likely missed one of the most powerful V-bottom rallies in recent memory.

While investors debated recession probabilities and geopolitical escalation, the market was sending an entirely different message. The tape refused to break. Buyers continued to absorb weakness. Leadership quietly regained control. And once the market reclaimed key levels, the chase was on.

The Nasdaq just completed a staggering 13-day winning streak and now sits roughly 20% above the March lows. Even more remarkable has been the relentless strength in Semiconductors, the undisputed leadership group of this cycle, which ripped higher for 18 consecutive sessions and nearly 50% off the lows. That is not a normal advance. That is a violent repricing event fueled by underexposure, forced chasing, and a market that simply refused to accommodate late bears.

This is what a lockout rally looks like. The kind of move that leaves underinvested managers frozen in disbelief as price continues to levitate despite every reason they believed it shouldn’t. Careers are damaged in environments like this—not because investors were unaware of the risks, but because they allowed the noise to overpower the message of price.

Throughout this entire bull advance, we have consistently emphasized one thing: follow the leaders. When leadership reasserts itself, particularly in Semiconductors and high-beta growth, it is a signal that bearish positioning must be reevaluated. Markets rarely sustain durable advances without leadership confirmation, and this rally delivered exactly that.

We hope you listened.

Not only have Semiconductors steamrolled bearish positioning, but the Mag 7—mockingly referred to as the “Lag 7” for months—have completely reawakened. For much of the correction, these names acted like an anchor on the major indexes, weighing on sentiment and suppressing broader upside participation. The best way to describe the setup was a sleeping dragon: dormant, dismissed, and left for dead by much of the market. But when a dragon wakes up, the entire landscape changes.

And that is exactly what just happened.

Once the Mag 7 regained momentum, the result was inevitable: a violent index advance that forced underexposed investors to chase higher prices. Remember, the Mag 7 comprise roughly 40% of the SPX. You simply do not get a sustained institutional-quality breakout without participation from this group. When they transition from laggards to leaders, benchmarked managers who remain underweight quickly find themselves trailing badly.

For nearly six months following the October peak, the Mag 7 battled for investor capital amid nonstop skepticism and deteriorating sentiment, ultimately culminating in an ~18% drawdown into the March lows. The narrative became universally bearish: they were “dead money,” AI spending was unsustainable, valuations were stretched, and meaningful ROI would never materialize.

Maybe that ultimately proves true. We don’t care.

We follow price, not narratives, and price told us to get long the group—and the broader market—back in late March. The character of the tape had already begun to shift beneath the surface. Even if the initial reversal was missed, the April 8th gap higher was a clear signal that institutions were returning aggressively to risk. The subsequent reclaim of the major moving averages only reinforced the message: exposure needed to increase, not decrease.

The market gave investors multiple opportunities to reposition. Most simply refused to listen.

There were more than enough clues along the way to participate in this historic reversal—if you knew where to look. The evidence was there in the price action, the leadership rotation, the breadth improvement, the momentum thrusts, and the persistent inability for the market to break despite overwhelmingly negative headlines. There is little room now for complaining about the rationality of the move or arguing that the market “shouldn’t” be trading here. The market does not care about opinions, emotions, or macro narratives that fail to translate into price deterioration.

These were the cards we were dealt.

Successful investing is about playing the hand in front of you—not the hand you wish you had. Those who stayed anchored to bearish narratives instead of adapting to the evolving tape were simply run over by price.

Speaking of charts, does the Mag 7 setup above actually look bearish? We would argue the exact opposite. The structure continues to improve materially, and with the bulk of the group set to report earnings this week, the market appears to be coiling for a potential breakout attempt. Could a poorly received earnings reaction disrupt the setup? Absolutely. But as it stands today, the tape is signaling strength, not fragility.

To use a poker analogy, the market is currently showing three of a kind with the River card still to come. The question is simple: what’s the next card?

Fundamentally, the backdrop remains stronger than many are willing to admit. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Magnificent Seven earnings are projected to grow roughly 19% in the first quarter, versus approximately 12% for the rest of the S&P 500. More importantly, much of that growth is occurring while valuations remain relatively compressed versus historical levels—particularly when excluding Tesla from the calculation.

In other words, the market may not be as overextended fundamentally as the consensus narrative suggests.

Which direction the index ultimately resolves from here is impossible to predict with absolute certainty. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling certainty in a game built on probabilities. But investing is about assessing risk, weighing the evidence, and positioning accordingly.

And right now, the weight of the evidence continues to favor higher prices.

Could the market experience volatility around earnings? Of course. Could we see pullbacks, failed breakouts, or sharp rotations beneath the surface? Absolutely. But unless the current leadership structure materially deteriorates, our view remains that new highs are likely coming—if not this week, then in the near future.

That does not mean the path will be linear. It rarely is. But the burden of proof, for now, remains on the bears.

It’s also FOMC week, but given where Fed Funds Futures are currently priced, combined with the inflation uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict and energy volatility, we view this meeting as largely a non-event from a policy standpoint.

At present, futures markets are implying near certainty that the Fed leaves rates unchanged. Barring a major surprise, the decision itself is unlikely to materially alter the market narrative. The greater focus, as always, will be on the tone of the statement, Powell’s commentary, and any subtle shifts in the Fed’s inflation or growth characterization.

That said, we suspect the Committee will remain intentionally cautious and largely avoid signaling anything materially new. The Fed is still navigating a highly fluid macro backdrop: sticky inflation pressures tied to energy, resilient equity markets, and lingering uncertainty surrounding growth and geopolitical developments. In that environment, maintaining optionality is likely the preferred course.
Ultimately, unless the Fed delivers an unexpectedly hawkish shift, we suspect price action and earnings reactions will matter far more than the meeting itself.

The more consequential Fed-related development may have quietly emerged last week when Thom Tillis reportedly dropped his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed Chair nomination. While still early, the move appears to clear a meaningful path toward confirmation and reinforces the growing market perception that a more rate-cut-friendly Fed leadership structure could eventually take center stage.

Markets trade on direction and expectations long before policy officially changes, and this development only adds to the growing belief that the next major policy shift will ultimately lean accommodative rather than restrictive.

We would view that as another incremental tailwind for risk assets.

Combined with resilient earnings growth, improving technical structure, and a market increasingly willing to look through macro noise, it further supports our broader view that pullbacks are likely to remain shallow and aggressively bought unless the underlying leadership structure materially breaks down.

With that said, it’s time to check the charts.