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Introduction

"Wax on, wax off."

If you've ever seen The Karate Kid, you know exactly where this is going.

Daniel spends most of the movie frustrated because Mr. Miyagi has him doing what appears to be meaningless work. Wax the car. Paint the fence. Sand the floor. Day after day. He can't understand how any of it is helping him become a better fighter.

Then eventually it clicks.

The lesson wasn't the task itself. The lesson was trusting the process.

The last few weeks in the market have felt a lot like that.

War on.

War off.

Ceasefire.

No ceasefire.

Escalation.

De-escalation.

A missile launch here. A diplomatic headline there. Every few hours investors are told the entire outlook has changed and markets should immediately reprice.

And yet, if you've been following our work, we've spent very little time worrying about the latest headline.

Why?

Because headlines are constantly changing. Price trajectory isn't.

Markets are discounting mechanisms. They don't wait for certainty. They don't wait for confirmation from politicians, television personalities, or social media experts. They absorb information in real time and continuously adjust probabilities.

That is why we've remained focused on the things that matter: price action, market internals, volatility, credit, rates, currencies, and oil. Those inputs tend to tell the truth long before the narrative catches up.

This doesn't mean headlines don't matter. They do. But they matter far less than most investors believe and for far shorter periods of time than the financial media would have you think.

The reality is simple. If your investment process depends on correctly interpreting every geopolitical headline, you're going to drive yourself insane.

One day it's war on.

The next day it's war off.

Then it's war on again.

Meanwhile, price keeps providing clues for those willing to listen.

As always, our job isn't to predict the next headline. Our job is to follow the weight of the evidence, trust the process, and let the market tell us what it thinks.

War on. War off. Price doesn't care about our opinions. It only cares about probabilities. Our job is to follow the evidence, not the narrative.

With that said, the "War On, War Off" rhetoric is reaching a fever pitch.

Stock futures are pointing to a gap-up open, oil is breaking down, and the seemingly relentless grind higher in the indexes appears set to continue as we begin a shortened trading week.

President Trump spent much of the weekend posting that a deal is "proceeding nicely" after inviting Iran to sign the Abraham Accords, while several Middle Eastern nations have echoed reports of progress.

War off.

Of course, there are still important details to negotiate. The United States and Israel must finalize terms surrounding sanctions relief, unfrozen Iranian assets, and logistics involving the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has also stated that the U.S. would launch a "bigger and stronger" military response should Iran reject the proposed framework.

War on.

More headlines are undoubtedly coming. They always do.

Meanwhile, markets appear far more interested in the destination than the day-to-day twists along the journey. Global equities are celebrating the prospect of de-escalation, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising roughly 0.5% to fresh all-time highs.

The message from price remains clear: investors continue to discount a future where this conflict becomes less disruptive, not more.

The Euro Stoxx 50 is up roughly 2% as we write, confirming the cup-and-handle breakout continuation pattern we highlighted in our 5/20 report as one reason to remain constructive on equities. The breakout is now gaining momentum, with European markets joining the global risk-on move. ATHs incoming?

Even Italy's market closed at a fresh all-time high today—its first since 2000.

Breadth across global equity markets continues to improve despite the endless wall of worry.

Sorry bears, that's not bearish.

We wrote the following in our 5/20 report:

"We view these international charts as additional confirmation that markets are increasingly looking through the Iran conflict. Barring any major re-escalation, the market appears more focused on what the world looks like after the conflict rather than the near-term degradation it is currently causing."

Follow price, not news.

We first advised subscribers to increase long exposure in our 3/22 report, aptly titled Buy the Panic. The market bottomed shortly thereafter, and since those March lows, U.S. equity indexes have staged a historic advance.

Investors waiting for the headlines to improve before recommitting capital were left chasing higher prices. By the time the news became less scary, the market had already discounted a better future.

That's what markets do.

They bottom when the news is terrible. They peak when the news is great. And they spend most of their time moving long before the narrative catches up.

Once again, price proved to be the better guide.

We went a step further and suggested that oil had likely already printed its cycle high, with any future rally likely producing a lower high sometime this summer.

Given the subsequent collapse in crude prices, that assessment appears to have been fairly accurate.

Is it possible that stresses in the oil market are forcing the U.S. into more aggressive negotiations?

Certainly.

Sporadic reports continue to surface regarding tightening petroleum supplies, while inflation data remains stubbornly elevated. Taken together, these developments complicate the Fed's path forward, reducing the urgency for rate cuts and, in some circles, even reigniting discussion of additional tightening should inflation pressures prove persistent.

None of this is particularly desirable for the Trump administration. Higher energy prices act as a tax on consumers, pressure corporate margins, and threaten to undermine an economy that has otherwise remained remarkably resilient. Bringing the conflict to a resolution would alleviate many of those concerns.

Whether that ultimately happens is anyone's guess.

We cannot handicap the outcome of this weekend's negotiations with any degree of confidence. What we can say is that markets have spent months climbing an enormous wall of worry, navigating everything from tariff fears and recession calls to geopolitical conflict and oil shocks.

Through it all, risk assets have continued to discount a more constructive outcome.

So what's next?

War on. War off. Price doesn't care about our opinions. It only cares about probabilities. Our job is to follow the evidence, not the narrative.

Time to check the charts.