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Introduction

If there is one lesson we have learned analyzing markets during the Trump era, it is the importance of staying open-minded and patient when evaluating potential outcomes. In market parlance, that means resisting the urge to overreact to day-to-day noise. We consistently advocate waiting for the weekly close before reassessing the landscape, and for good reason. Markets are bombarded with conflicting headlines, economic data, policy announcements, and geopolitical developments throughout the week. The result is often a game of misdirection, where even experienced investors can be led astray by seemingly important developments that ultimately prove insignificant.

It is easy to become anchored to a single data point or a violent one-day move, but experience has taught us that meaningful trends are rarely determined in a single session. One day of market action is not equivalent to a week of information. Genuine buyer and seller intent reveals itself over days and weeks, not hours. Markets require time to digest information, and patience is often rewarded.

We also know that President Trump has historically viewed a strong stock market as an important measure of success. Whether investors agree with that philosophy or not, it creates a backdrop where policy decisions have often tilted the odds in favor of the bulls over the intermediate term. The V-shaped reversals witnessed during the March-April selloffs of recent years serve as reminders of how quickly policy-driven developments can alter market trajectories.

This past week provided another example. Markets initially interpreted the Federal Reserve's messaging as more hawkish, prompting investors to reprice rate expectations and raising concerns that elevated valuations could come under pressure. Under normal circumstances, that might have been enough to derail the rally. Instead, the narrative shifted almost immediately when news broke that the Trump administration had signed an interim peace agreement, sparking a sharp risk-on response across asset markets.

By week's end, the major indexes had not only absorbed the hawkish Fed rhetoric but had closed near their highs, delivering yet another reminder that misdirection is not reserved for magicians.

Interestingly, Trump specifically cited economic concerns as a reason to seek an end to the conflict. That may be more important than investors realize. Markets have become fixated on who the next Fed Chair will be and how quickly rates can fall, but those discussions are largely moot if oil remains elevated. A sustained energy shock would make it very difficult for any Fed Chair—whether it's Powell, Warsh, or someone else—to deliver the easing cycle markets are hoping for.

In many ways, the path of oil may matter more than the identity of the next Fed Chair. If that realization is finally taking hold in Washington, it would help explain the administration's urgency in pursuing a ceasefire.

Our 6/17 report highlighted the challenges confronting the market. Several of the goalposts we use to measure buyer conviction were undoubtedly being tested. Had the Iran headlines not provided immediate relief, would the market have found its footing and reversed? We do not know, and frankly, we do not care. The reason behind a move is often less important than the move itself. Price is our ultimate arbiter, and once again, price delivered a healthy dose of misdirection, catching newly minted bears offside.

That is precisely why we stressed patience before overreacting to a single day's worth of data.

We concluded our 6/17 report with the following:

"We do not want to overreact to today's reversal. FOMC sessions are often accompanied by significant noise as hedges are unwound and investors reposition around the policy announcement. Those dynamics are likely being amplified by quarter-end portfolio rebalancing and what is expected to be the largest quarterly OPEX on record..."

"It would not be surprising to see markets remain choppy through quarter-end as investors digest the implications of a more hawkish Fed and await the next major catalyst. That catalyst could come in the form of a formal Iran peace agreement..."

"Our current stance is one of patience. We want to see how the week closes and whether the key gap levels discussed above are reclaimed or remain broken before making any significant adjustments to our broader outlook."

We could not have scripted it much better, although we certainly did not expect the catalyst to arrive so quickly. Yet it did, validating both our patience and our intermediate-term bullish outlook.

Of course, the weekend has already introduced a new wrinkle, with reports suggesting Iran has walked away from negotiations in Switzerland, once again calling the path forward into question. However this ultimately unfolds, the lesson remains the same. Markets are constantly bombarded by conflicting headlines, shifting narratives, and emotionally charged reactions. More often than not, those developments create noise rather than signal.

If there is one takeaway from the past week, it is this: remain patient and avoid the temptation to overreact. Misdirection Isn't Just for Magicians.

Now, let's check the charts.