Coiled Spring Capital MW 10/1/25

We grew up in the Northeast and spent most of our adult life in New York City. One of the things we miss most about that part of the country is the changing of the seasons. The crisp fall air funneling down Park Avenue on a morning walk to the office, WSJ in hand, remains one of our fondest memories—and one we hope to relive again someday.

Now we reside in the Southwest, where winters are mild, spring lasts two weeks, and the rest of the year is blistering heat. Without true seasonal shifts, you lose that sense of transition and renewal that makes each season feel meaningful.

The stock market has its own brand of seasonality. Patterns tied to the calendar or the presidential cycle often repeat with surprising regularity. But they are not absolute, and relying on them in isolation can be dangerous. We treat seasonality as a useful guidepost—never the whole map—and only act when it aligns with our broader analysis.

This is worth discussing because the most well-known seasonal mantra is “Sell in May.” Had you followed that this year, you’d have missed one of the strongest stretches in market history. Since the April correction, the major indexes have gone on an absolute tear. Fortunately, we’ve remained bullish throughout—and that stance has paid off.

September was billed as the month when the bears would finally land a knockout blow. Instead, they were the ones left flat on the mat. The S&P 500 just logged its strongest September in 15 years—a result that caught many off guard, but not those who stayed with the trend.

In our 9/21 report, we highlighted the potential for post-OPEX seasonal weakness and the old adage, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur.” That pattern did play out—for about two days—before dip buyers quickly stepped back in.

Taken together, Q3 ranked as one of the strongest on record, according to Carson Research.

While seasonality didn’t play out as many expected, that in itself is worth noting. When a widely anticipated pattern fails to materialize, the absence becomes a signal—and in this case, a bullish one.

Now, with September’s weakness never showing up, the calendar flips to October—historically one of the friendliest stretches for equities. According to Carson Research, Q4 has been the best quarter for stocks since 1950, delivering positive returns nearly 80% of the time with an average gain of 4.2%.

And historically, Q4 in a post-election year has been especially strong, adding yet another layer of seasonal support for equities.

Of course, October also carries a reputation for volatility, with several of history’s most famous crashes (1929, 1987, 1997, 2008) occurring during this month. Interestingly, the first half of October is typically one of the strongest stretches, before mutual funds begin liquidating to close their books. That rebalancing likely contributes to October’s choppiness, while the big crash years skew the longer-term averages.

Despite its reputation, October has historically delivered positive returns. Strip out the crash years, and the average performance jumps well above 1%—making it one of the better months on the calendar.

But let’s be honest: who really cares about seasonality? It hasn’t mattered much during this year’s so-called “difficult” months, which turned out to be some of the strongest on record. Should we expect the opposite now as we head into the historically best months? Maybe—but as we’ve said before, we never rely on any single signal. We weight the evidence as it presents itself.

That’s why we ignored the bearish seasonality warnings this year and stayed steadfastly bullish. Yes, dips have been even shallower than we expected, but that’s a hallmark of a strong trend. Strong trends rarely offer easy entry points; they keep people locked out and force them to chase.

In our 9/21 report, we wrote:

“While we aim to be tactical when our signals warrant caution, our stance since the April lows has been steadfastly bullish—and still is. That doesn’t preclude corrective moves, but we believe any dips will remain shallow and buyable. Outside of a few diverging internal metrics, there is little evidence that the market is shifting to a defensive posture. Divergences can persist for a while before becoming meaningful, and until they are confirmed by index structure, we will continue to lean bullish.”

That view continues to play out. Last week, hedge funds sold equities at the fastest pace since early August—yet all of that supply was quickly absorbed. Every micro-wobble is being bought, while the so-called smart money keeps trying to call the top. Meanwhile, sentiment remains subdued, and as of the latest CFTC report, speculators are still net short SPX futures.

Remember, powerful trends don’t die on skepticism—they die on euphoria. And this is anything but that.

Now, let’s turn to the charts.

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