Coiled Spring Capital MW 10/8/25

Introduction

Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” That line perfectly captures today’s market. Every macro jab, every policy hook, every technical setup that looks like a knockout punch—none of it keeps this tape on the mat. Like Tyson in his prime, the market keeps taking body blows and still comes out swinging, forging yet another all-time high on Wednesday.

The Mike Tyson momentum market simply will not stay down. Tuesday’s bearish engulfing bar looked like a potential momentum break, testing key moving averages… but the buyers stepped in again, defending those levels with precision. This is exactly why we emphasize: momentum must break before price can revert. Until that happens, fighting the trend is an exercise in futility. Fight momentum at your own peril.

The stock market doesn’t care if you think it’s a bubble. It doesn’t care about your valuation models, your fair-value spreadsheets, or your need for a reset to re-lever long exposure. Forget what you were taught in business school—it’s irrelevant here. We live in a machine-driven world, one dominated by algorithmic flows and trend-following systems where momentum begets more momentum. Rationality takes a back seat to reflexivity.

The market’s message is clear: it’s not interested in your logic—it’s responding to liquidity, positioning, and velocity. Until those conditions change, the champ is still in the ring—and it’s winning on every card.

Today’s main event was the Fed Minutes release. The FOMC showed a willingness to cut rates further this year, but several members voiced concern over the pace of easing. There’s also a growing unease around the employment picture—and that’s before the shutdown froze the latest payroll data in time. The lack of fresh labor data might actually be bullish in the near term, removing a potential negative catalyst and giving the trend-following algorithms more room to push the tape higher. As we wrote in our 10/5 report, CPI remains the next potential source of volatility, and in a market this one-directional, it would hardly be surprising if that’s where the next jab lands.

Tuesday’s market wobble was sparked by concerns around profitability trends in Oracle’s datacenter segment, a reminder of just how sensitive this market has become to any hint of weakness in the AI trade. Ironically, that kind of skepticism is bullish. The more investors doubt the durability of this advance, the more fuel it provides for the melt-up to continue. Bull markets don’t die on disbelief—they die on euphoria.

Until we see signs of that euphoric sentiment, we have to assume the Mike Tyson market will keep taking every punch in stride—absorbing body blows, shaking off the jabs, and pressing forward. Every dip that looks like the knockout punch has turned out to be just another round in a fight the bulls keep winning.

With that said, it’s time to step back into the ring and check the charts—because no matter how loud the narrative gets, price always tells the truth.

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