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Introduction

Can NVDA shift the tides?

We all expected the numbers to be eye-popping. The real issue isn’t fundamentals — it’s sentiment. Fears are growing that hyperscale AI spending is unsustainable and will eventually be dialed back, despite little hard evidence to support that claim. The narrative stack is expanding: AI replacing labor, reduced consumption, and ultimately less demand for AI infrastructure. And, of course, the ever-present drumbeat that AI will destroy entire industries.

The latest crescendo came from a relatively obscure voice: Citrini. In a widely circulated Substack titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” they outlined a dystopian AI scenario in which mass white-collar layoffs trigger a deflationary spiral, unemployment surges into double digits, and equity markets collapse.

If you think this type of piece wasn’t designed to stir anxiety, think again. These narratives tend to emerge at the most fragile moments. In 2026, investors have endured a near-constant barrage of AI disruption headlines targeting one industry after another — trucking and logistics one week, cybersecurity the next. Citrini extended the blast radius further, calling out stalwarts like American Express, DoorDash, and ServiceNow.

According to Bloomberg, the report generated massive inbound attention, with investors flooding Citrini’s firm with feedback and research requests. While no trades were reportedly tied directly to the piece, the market impact was undeniable, with several major names selling off sharply.

Ironically, episodes like this can sometimes mark exhaustion points. When fear reaches a fever pitch, markets have a tendency to clear.

Which raises the question: are we staring at a potential Citrini Bottom?

Will NVDA alter the current narrative?

As we noted in our 2/22 report, NVDA’s earnings may not carry the same punch they did in prior quarters. But that may not be a bad thing. In a market gripped by malaise — and with positioning far less crowded — even a “less explosive” print could be enough to shift the tone.

The SPX hasn’t closed more than 2.5% above or below its 50-day moving average over the past three months — the longest such streak since August 2017, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

We’ve posited in prior reports that NVDA earnings could spark a rotation into the obliterated software complex, which has been at the center of the recent “AI scare trade.” That was always a degree of conjecture. But with NVDA itself having lagged meaningfully — up only ~8% since August (no including Wednesday’s gains) — it’s not hard to imagine a resurgence triggering rotation into the market’s most beaten-down areas, particularly if capital remains crowded in cyclicals. Markets have a tendency to be cruel that way.

The relative performance underscores the point. Since August, the broader semiconductor complex (SMH) has rallied nearly 50%, while NVDA has gained less than 10% over the same period — a notable divergence for the group’s bellwether.

The chart below compares SMH versus NVDA, highlighting the magnitude of the divergence. Interestingly, several technical signals suggest a potential inflection could be near — particularly if NVDA delivers a strong report.

Key signals to watch:

The bottom line: the setup is in place for relative reversion — it likely just needs a catalyst. NVDA earnings may be that catalyst.

We think it’s entirely possible that a well-received NVDA report could spark broader market rotation — not just into lagging software, but into other underperforming areas like financials, consumer stocks, and even the Mag 7 — while capital rotates out of crowded cyclical exposures. We’re not suggesting anything more than a mean-reversion move, but even a tactical unwind would offer a welcome reprieve from the building market stress.

While it’s only one day of trading, there are early signs of this dynamic emerging, with leadership and laggard sectors beginning to flip.

Even crypto got the memo, with Bitcoin rallying roughly 8% as we write this report — coming just one day after a DeMark Sequential 13 buy printed at the lows. Crypto has been one of the most persistent laggards in 2026, and any sustained mean reversion there could spill over into other underperforming areas.

It’s important to note that it’s not the numbers NVDA delivers that matter — it’s the reaction. How NVDA closes the week will likely set the tone for the next directional move.

Let’s check the charts.