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Flash Commentary

The market is closed on Friday, and as such, we will not be issuing a formal report tonight. Given the timing of the POTUS address and the evolving response from Iran, we think it’s prudent to wait for the weekly close before making any definitive assessments on direction.

As you know, we were leaning toward a tactical bounce this week—and while we did not get the ideal entry levels, the broader call has played out.

The SPX never reached our lower targets, but did find support within the August 2025 gap window. The resulting ~5% rally now appears to be losing momentum, with price stalling near the confluence of the 200-day and 20-day moving averages.

DeMark TrendFactor levels have done an excellent job defining both downside support and upside resistance throughout this move. The 6597 level—previously support—has now flipped to resistance.

From here, it likely requires a meaningful positive catalyst to push price through that level. That could emerge from tonight’s developments, but absent that, we may begin to see some consolidation and backing-and-filling in the near term.

Oil has remained notably resilient. Despite the potential for a ceasefire, prices have yet to meaningfully retrace. Until that changes, we remain skeptical of the recent equity bounce, given oil’s influence on rates and the broader inflation backdrop.

That said, momentum is beginning to diverge into these highs, suggesting the move may be losing steam and vulnerable to a pullback into the weekend.

Until we see that break, it’s difficult to get overly aggressive on the long side.

There has been little change in the Fed Funds futures curve—at least for now. As it stands, expectations for rate cuts have largely been pushed out, with easing effectively removed from the outlook for the remainder of the year.

This is occurring even as short-term rates begin to roll over—a dynamic we flagged in our 3/29 report as particularly concerning.

The $USD (DXY) has backed off our pivot resistance, with the MACD now rolling back over—a potential early signal that recent overtures to de-escalate the conflict may be gaining traction.

That said, we would prefer to see a decisive break of the UTL to confirm a trend change. Perhaps that catalyst comes tonight.

The positive divergence signals we highlighted over the weekend have played out well in identifying a tradeable bottom and continue to show incremental improvement. We’ll walk through these in more detail in the full weekend report.

That said, the easy money off the lows has likely been captured as the market begins to price in a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict. However, without a meaningful pullback in oil, the underlying drivers of slower growth remain firmly in place.

Importantly, the divergence we highlighted—front-end rates rolling over even as cuts are priced out—remains unresolved, suggesting the market is still sniffing out a growth issue beneath the surface.

This reinforces our broader view: what we are seeing is consistent with a tactical bounce rather than a confirmed durable low—at least until macro inputs (oil, rates, credit) begin to align more constructively.

Positioning has improved, but the macro has not. Until that changes, this remains a trade—not a regime shift.

We’ll see what tonight’s address brings.

Stay nimble.